3/16/2022 | Kiplinger’s Retirement Report
By David Rodeck
David Rodeck, contributing writer at Kiplinger’s Retirement Report, suggests that retirees need to build a retirement inflation hedge and makes several suggestions for protecting your retirement, including dividend stocks.
Soaring inflation, once a fixture of the 1970s and ’80s, returned with a vengeance in 2021, when prices skyrocketed 7% for the year, the highest in four decades.
For retirees, inflation brings two headaches: stretching a fixed income to meet rapidly rising prices and investing a retirement savings portfolio so that it keeps pace with the higher cost of living.
“The biggest fear for retirees is running out of money,” says Chris Miller, founder of the RIA South Pointe Advisors in New York City. “High inflation reduces their purchasing power and increases the likelihood that their portfolio cannot support their spending needs.”
The Federal Reserve expects inflation will subside and range somewhere between 2.5% and 3% by the end of 2022. That’s still higher than the 1% to 2% annual rate from the past decade, and the Fed could also be wrong.
Inflation also has its silver linings. The Social Security Administration increased its payments for 2022 by 5.9%, the biggest hike in four decades. “While this won’t fund all the projected price increases, it will help,” says Phil Michalowski, head of annuities with MassMutual. “Most importantly, when Social Security benefits are indexed up, it is a one-way adjustment. The benefits do not ever index down.”
Guidance for building a retirement inflation hedge
Many retirees also have assets that tend to rise with inflation. “If you’ve been fortunate enough to own stock or real estate, you’ve likely benefited from the inflationary climate,” says Gregory W. Lawrence, a certified financial planner in Estero, Florida.
Real estate income is income earned from renting out a property. Real estate works well with inflation. This is because, as inflation rises, so do property values, and so does the amount a landlord can charge for rent. This results in the landlord earning a higher rental income over time. This helps to keep pace with the rise in inflation. Lawrence believes for this reason, real estate income is one of the best ways to hedge an investment portfolio against inflation. Income property ownership comes with significant property management responsibilities however which may not suit a retirement lifestyle.
Keeping up with inflation isn’t easy for fixed-income investments, like bonds and CDs, that pay paltry interest. Bonds also pose another risk. If interest rates rise, the prices of existing bonds will fall, so that if you sell them before they mature, you’ll lose money. If you invest in bonds for income, Miller suggests using a bond ladder by splitting your money among bonds of different maturities, like those with one-, two-, three- and five-year terms. Hold each bond until it matures to get your deposit back before reinvesting in a new bond and laddering it the same way.
Using Treasury inflation-protected securities to safeguard your principal from inflation would be a good move if the market hadn’t already priced in that benefit. Another option Lawrence likes is dividend stocks, especially in sectors that should respond well to inflation. “Oil companies and pipelines will benefit from high energy costs, which should continue going up,” he says. He also recommends commodity-based companies, like those that produce aluminum, copper, iron ore and precious metals. These stocks typically do well when inflation is high because the cost of the raw materials these companies produce also rises, increasing their revenues.
Gold has often been considered a hedge against inflation. In fact, many people have looked to gold as an “alternative currency”, particularly in countries where the native currency is losing value. These countries tend to utilize gold or other strong currencies when their own currency has failed. Gold is a real, physical asset, and tends to hold its value for the most part. However, gold is not a true perfect hedge against inflation. When inflation rises, central banks tend to increase interest rates as part of monetary policy. Holding onto an asset like gold that pays no yields is not as valuable as holding onto an asset that does, particularly when rates are higher, meaning yields are higher.
To build a portfolio of dividend stocks, Lawrence suggests focusing on companies that consistently stand out in their sectors during good times and bad. “Think of industry stalwarts: Verizon, P&G, J&J, and CocaCola,” he says. One risk for dividend stocks however is if the company runs into tough times and declares a loss, forcing it to trim or eliminate its dividend entirely, which will hurt the stock price.
You can also look for mutual funds and exchange-traded funds specializing in stocks with high dividends, such as Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM) or Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD).